National Assembly for Wales elections - Senedd elections

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  • National Assembly for Wales elections - Senedd elections

    Wahlfieber Team, 03.10.2025 05:10
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Wales dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2016.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    Quellen:

    • wahlfieber.com
    • wikipedia.org
    • X/Twitter: --- x.com/XPoll21 --- x.com/wahl_prognosen --- x.com/wahlfieber
    • Ergebnisse:

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • National Assembly for Wales election, 2016

    Wahlfieber Team, 04.10.2025 03:08, Reply to #1
    #2

    ..

    Senedd elections 2016 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Regional Vote

    ...

    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201131,5018,8020,806,504,4018,00
    Prognosen 2016
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber32,3621,4019,819,760,0016,674,532,698,9810,786
    Umfragen
    Welsh Election Study31,0022,0022,005,0014,007,003,111,707,393,743
    YouGov29,0019,0022,008,0015,007,003,031,706,853,542
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)30,0020,5022,006,5014,007,502,331,284,342,091
    MMI-Wahltrend30,4520,3021,278,0914,505,893,151,677,903,725
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average30,7620,6521,187,9114,255,753,121,617,793,784
    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen32,3621,4019,819,760,0016,674,532,698,9810,78
    Umfragen30,0020,5022,006,5014,507,003,071,707,123,64
    Expertenprognosen30,2320,4021,647,2914,256,702,761,486,122,90
    Wahltipps30,7620,6521,187,9114,255,753,121,617,793,78
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen30,6020,6421,387,5414,355,913,221,787,214,61
    Ergebnis 201631,5018,8020,606,5013,009,60
    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    ..

    Senedd elections 2016 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Constituency Vote

    ...

    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201142,3025,0019,3010,600,002,80
    Prognosen 2016
    Umfragen
    Welsh Election Study31,0022,0022,005,0014,007,004,142,3011,926,424
    YouGov29,0019,0022,008,0015,007,004,252,409,869,025
    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)30,0020,5022,006,5014,507,003,832,059,766,771
    MMI-Wahltrend29,5019,7522,007,2514,757,003,952,189,447,653
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average29,7520,1322,006,8814,637,003,882,119,597,152
    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Umfragen30,0020,5022,006,5014,507,004,192,3510,897,72
    Expertenprognosen29,7520,1322,006,8814,627,003,892,119,607,21
    Wahltipps29,7520,1322,006,8814,627,003,882,119,597,15
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen29,8520,2822,006,7314,577,004,012,2110,117,40
    Ergebnis 201634,7020,5021,107,7012,503,50
    LabConPCLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • National Assembly for Wales election, 2021

    Wahlfieber Team, 04.10.2025 03:22, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Senedd elections 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Regional Vote

    ...

    LabConPCLibDemAbolishAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201131,5018,8020,806,504,4018,00
    Prognosen 2016
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber30,3219,8823,786,958,4110,666,303,7015,5016,839
    Umfragen
    ICM37,0022,0022,003,004,0012,002,861,476,922,952
    Opinium38,0027,0019,004,000,0012,004,461,9020,514,597
    Savanta32,0025,0019,005,006,0013,003,662,009,155,896
    Survation36,0023,0022,007,000,0012,004,762,0023,455,198
    YouGov31,0025,0021,004,007,0012,003,661,878,707,025
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)35,0024,5020,504,503,5012,001,750,732,920,991
    MMI-Wahltrend33,0823,1021,825,614,7311,673,081,717,403,433
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average33,1122,8221,825,535,1911,543,221,798,043,684
    LabConPCLibDemAbolishAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen30,3219,8823,786,958,4110,666,303,7015,5016,83
    Umfragen34,8024,4020,604,605,679,933,931,8513,755,13
    Expertenprognosen34,0423,8021,165,064,1111,832,451,225,162,21
    Wahltipps33,1122,8221,825,535,1911,543,221,798,043,68
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen33,9523,5921,215,075,5510,643,801,9111,405,62
    Ergebnis 201636,2025,1020,704,303,7010,00
    LabConPCLibDemAbolishAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    ..

    Senedd elections 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Constituency Vote

    ...

    LabConPCLibDemAbolishAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201134,7020,5021,107,700,0016,00
    Prognosen 2016
    Umfragen
    ICM39,0024,0024,004,001,008,004,072,0314,255,226
    Opinium40,0030,0019,004,000,007,005,833,4810,8317,268
    Savanta36,0027,0019,005,004,009,002,061,043,671,501
    Survation40,0026,0018,007,000,009,005,082,4723,817,427
    YouGov36,0029,0020,003,002,0010,003,151,309,473,395
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)37,5027,5020,504,002,508,002,671,236,822,172
    MMI-Wahltrend36,7528,2520,253,502,259,002,841,237,942,364
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average37,1327,8820,383,752,388,502,741,237,342,163
    LabConPCLibDemAbolishAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Umfragen37,7527,5020,504,002,337,923,771,969,566,84
    Expertenprognosen37,1327,8820,383,752,378,502,761,237,382,27
    Wahltipps37,1327,8820,383,752,378,502,741,237,342,16
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen37,4827,6620,453,892,358,163,341,658,624,87
    Ergebnis 201636,2025,1020,704,303,7010,00
    LabConPCLibDemAbolishAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
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